Holborn and St Pancras is a very unusual constituency. While often referred to as being in “north London”, a significant chunk of it covers the west end, including parts of Covent Garden, Fitzrovia and all of Bloomsbury. It is also home to three of the UK’s largest mainline train stations, two of the three Inns of Court and the British Museum – and, for the time being, the Bayeux Tapestry.
Prime Minister Andy Burnham cracked a good joke at the ceremonial event to launch the tapestry’s visit, speaking of “a leader emerging from a northern territory, travelling to the south of England in search of the crown. Clearly something that couldn’t happen today.”
The byelection was a major test of Burnham’s popularity and his capacity to unite the British centre-left. Labour did remarkably well, with Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali losing just under four percentage points from Keir Starmer’s 2024 vote share. She easily beat the Green party candidate Zack Polanski.
Questions begged at the byelection included: can the “king of the north” appeal to southern voters? Can the Greens win over progressive voters in cities across Britain? Will Conservative and Liberal Democrat supporters vote tactically to keep the Greens out? And has the Green Party of England and Wales been damaged by its conference decision to define Zionism as racism and, effectively, support a policy that would lead to the end of the state of Israel?
Labour’s win clearly showed that Burnham can appeal to London voters. While the city’s media still fear that the prime minister may harbour anti-London sentiments, the Holborn and St Pancras result suggests voters in the capital are prepared to give him a chance.
Battle for Britain’s centre-left
Moreover, after the election became a struggle for the soul of the centre-left, it is possible that the government will now be wary of accidentally sending out anti-London messaging. Labour won 59 out of 75 seats in the capital in 2024, the party’s biggest such concentration in the country. These constituents need to be shown a little love.
The second question has been answered with a resounding “no”. Taking the Green vote in 2024 and adding votes cast for the independent candidate Andrew Feinstein in the same election (a better starting point than just the Green vote), there was a swing of just under 4% from Labour to the Greens.
The Greens can certainly win a proportion of the progressive left vote, but this will not be enough to win many urban seats, even in London. On Thursday’s showing, the party would probably win no seats at all in the city – and few, if any, in similar cities like Leeds, Manchester and Birmingham.
The fall in the Liberal Democrat vote may suggest a modest amount of tactical voting to stop the Greens. In some London borough elections in May this year it looked as if Labour voters switched to the Conservatives to keep Reform UK out. The way Lib Dem, Conservative and Labour supporters use their votes tactically for each other to block the Greens and Reform will be a key feature determining the outcomes of the next general election.
The extent to which the Greens were harmed by their “Zionism is racism” and “one state” policies is impossible to measure. Polling will doubtless help political experts find out more. But the divisions at the top of the party remain, with key figures including its first-ever MP, Caroline Lucas, openly critical of Polanski’s failure to state his position on the issue or to vote at the conference. This does not bode well for the Greens’ capacity to fight the tough and experienced people who run the Labour machine.
The byelection did not answer most of the big questions still facing British politics – notably, is the fragmentation of the “two-party” system starting to reverse? But it gave pointers. Burnham had a good result. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch had a good conference in the same week. For the first time in years, both the Labour and Conservative parties like their leaders and feel optimistic about the future. That this can be said is, of itself, a beguiling curiosity.
Tony Travers does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.