A number of pressures have converged on food production over the past year, and their effects are likely to show up in our shopping baskets this winter. Farmers have faced increasingly erratic weather, influenced by climate change and the El Niño phenomenon, while international conflicts have pushed up the cost of fuel, fertiliser and other essential inputs.
These pressures compound one another: adverse and unpredictable weather reduces crop yields, while higher fertiliser and energy costs make it more expensive to produce and process food.
This will not only impact farmers’ livelihoods and shoppers’ wallets, but potentially the quality, volume and nutritional value of the food on our shelves, as manufacturers turn to cheaper alternative ingredients to limit overall price increases.
Here are five familiar foods that illustrate how this could play out this winter:
1. Chocolate
Chocolate is not only a comfort food with the ability to boost mood, but its production supports the livelihoods of nearly 6 million smallholder farmers worldwide, mostly in West Africa. This is a result of the manual labour required to harvest cocoa, meaning that as a crop it cannot easily be grown on an industrial scale.
However, cocoa trees are sensitive to their environment. The effect of drought on cocoa yields has long been recognised, but recent research shows that intense periods of heavy rainfall can be a problem too. They can reduce the activity of the flying insects required to pollinate cocoa flowers, while increasing the likelihood of fungal diseases that decimate crops. The current El Niño, set to continue into 2027, is expected to exacerbate erratic weather patterns, potentially leading to both droughts and heavy rainfall in some coca-growing regions, which will continue to affect supply chains.
The resulting reductions in yield caused a huge price spike in 2024, which was then passed on to consumers – a bar of Dairy Milk jumped more than 60% in price compared to 2021, for instance. Prices have since reduced somewhat but are still far above historic levels and are soon expected to rise again as a result of a particularly poor yield this year.
But price is not the only thing that can change. As cocoa becomes more expensive, manufacturers may look for ways to swap the more expensive cocoa butter for cheaper alternative ingredients like palm oil. Despite palm oil serving some functional properties to maintain a smooth texture and shelf stability, it is less often found in premium chocolate products and can have a different mouthfeel.
2. Potatoes
Unlike chocolate, potatoes aren’t just a luxury or comfort item. They’re a staple of European diets, and provide a healthy yet affordable starch source.
But potato plants need lots of water to produce their characteristic tubers – meaning this year’s extremely dry summer has put crops under immense stress. Recent reports warn that UK and European potato harvests could be 3.5 million tonnes lower than expected – that’s roughly 5kg per person in the continent.
Given demand for a staple like potatoes is relatively steady, this abrupt fall in supply will tend to mean rises in price. What has long been relied upon as a filling and affordable base to meals may put further pressure on household budgets, and leave shoppers looking to find alternative options such as oats, barley, beans or lentils.
3. Leafy greens
Spinach, lettuce and other leafy greens are especially susceptible to heat shock and water stress as a result of their shallow roots and high water content. Similarly to potatoes, their yields have suffered this year. High temperatures, cause plants to go to seed prematurely, while widespread drought limits water available for crop irrigation. In these stressful conditions, pests can cause problems for especially susceptible crops.
In these circumstances retailers will likely have to increase imports from other countries such as Spain. While other European countries are not immune to the impacts of extreme heat and drought, their farming systems are often better prepared to accommodate them, demonstrating a lack of resilience within UK food production which must be urgently addressed.
4. Bread
Arable farmers growing field crops such as wheat do not irrigate their crops but rely on the right amount of rain at the right time of year. This year’s long summer drought meant that UK wheat yields have fallen significantly below recent averages.
But wheat only makes up about 10% of the overall cost of an average loaf of bread. Increases in pricing are also being driven by energy prices and other overheads passed onto bakeries, which need to power huge mills to produce flour and heat ovens to bake bread. This means a poor harvest is one of many factors likely to inflate the price of bread over the coming months.
Bread has historically been cheap to produce. Much like potatoes, it has long been considered a routine purchase and a staple source of energy, so even a modest increase in cost will soon add up for consumers across the country.
5. Olive oil
Despite the cost of olive oil coming down from a spike in 2024, it is expected to rise in coming months.
Olive trees are relatively hardy but still depend on sufficient water and favourable temperatures – 70% of Spain’s olive groves are rain-fed, for instance. Yet, in recent years there has been an increase in droughts and extreme temperatures in important olive-growing regions across the Mediterranean, with fires affecting groves in Greece, Italy and Portugal this year alone.
The effects of droughts and wildfires on olive yields and the price of olive oil is likely to result in a a nutritional dilemma for shoppers. Olive oil is rich in antioxidants (such as polyphenols) and healthy fats (mostly monounsaturated fats), crucial for heart and brain health. But when prices rise, shoppers will likely be pressured to choose a more affordable alternative.
The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.