Plaid Cymru’s victory in the Senedd (Welsh parliament) election on May 7 was historic.
For the first time since devolution began in 1999, the party emerged as the largest group, winning 35.4% of the vote. The result has allowed Plaid Cymru to form a new government, ending 27 years of Welsh Labour leadership.
For some, the victory is more than an electoral breakthrough. It is also seen as a step towards Welsh independence, which is a goal that has long been central to Plaid Cymru’s political identity.
The election result has reignited debate about the future of the UK. With pro-independence parties now leading governments in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, some politicians have warned of growing pressure on the union.
The UK government’s health secretary Wes Streeting described the situation as an “existential threat to the future integrity of the United Kingdom”. In Wales, a Conservative Senedd member has warned of Plaid Cymru’s “separatists plan to salami slice their way to Welsh independence”.
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Plaid Cymru has downplayed its independence ambitions, however. Party leader Rhun ap Iorwerth ruled out holding an independence referendum during the next parliamentary term. Instead, the party’s election campaign focused on more immediate concerns such as improving the NHS, raising educational standards and strengthening the Welsh economy.
Those priorities were reflected in Plaid Cymru’s plan for its first 100 days in government. Constitutional change featured only in commitments to seek further powers for the Senedd and establish a national commission for Wales to lead what the party describes as a “national conversation” about Wales’s constitutional future.
This marked a significant change from the previous Senedd election in 2021. Then, independence was a much more prominent part of the party’s platform. It included a commitment to hold a referendum within five years if Plaid entered government.
This shift reflects the political environment in which the 2026 election was fought. Support for Welsh independence remains low. The Welsh Election Study 2026 found that only 13.6% of respondents backed independence. The same research suggested constitutional questions were far less important to voters than healthcare, the cost of living, jobs and housing.
Polling before the election also pointed to a sharp decline in support for Labour and a surge in support for Reform UK. That created an opportunity for Plaid Cymru to present itself both as the vehicle for change after decades of Labour rule and as the strongest alternative to Reform.
The party tested that message successfully in the Caerffili by-election in October 2025, when it won comfortably with 47% of the vote.
A familiar strategy
Plaid Cymru’s more cautious approach to independence is neither new nor unusual. Our research has shown that, for much of the past two decades, the party has pursued a gradualist constitutional strategy.
Since adopting “independence in Europe” as its constitutional ambition in 2003, it has generally focused election campaigns on the immediate challenges facing Wales while seeking the steady transfer of more powers to the Senedd.
The UK’s departure from the European Union was a catalyst for a more assertive approach. By the 2021 election, independence had become a much more visible part of Plaid’s message. But that argument struggled to gain traction among voters whose attention was focused on recovering from the COVID pandemic than establishing a new Welsh state.
In this respect, Plaid Cymru is following a path taken by several pro-independence movements across Europe.
Senedd Cymru, CC BY
In the 2000s, the Scottish National Party (SNP) also presented itself as a credible government-in-waiting prior to entering government for the first time in 2007. As a minority administration for the next four years, its priority was to show itself to be a safe pair of hands for running Scotland.
This pragmatic focus helped create the conditions for an independence referendum after the party secured a majority in 2011.
Parties in Catalonia and the Basque Country have similarly adjusted the prominence of their constitutional ambitions in response to changing political circumstances.
The challenge ahead
Plaid Cymru now faces a delicate balancing act. Like the SNP, the party will want to use its time in government to move Wales further along what it calls a “journey towards independence”. But doing so will not be straightforward.
The first hurdle may come in securing support for a budget that includes funding for a National Commission on Wales’s constitutional future. Some Senedd members have already indicated they would oppose measures they believe are designed to advance independence.
The greater challenge will be political. Plaid must manage the expectations of supporters who want progress towards independence while also retaining the backing of a much larger group of voters who do not. At the same time, the party must demonstrate that it can govern effectively. Its future electoral success will depend far more on its record on healthcare, education and the economy than on constitutional debate alone.
If Plaid Cymru cannot convince voters that it has improved the way Wales is governed, its hold on power may prove short lived. And without sustained success in government, the longer-term case for Welsh independence will become much harder to make.
Anwen Elias receives funding from the Economic and Social Research Council. Previous research has been funded by Horizon 2020.
Elin Royles received funding from EU Horizon 2020 to undertake the broader research underpinning this publication.