For so long as it has a majority, the governing party forms the government regardless of who leads it. Opposition politicians know this, even if they tend to call for a general election<\/a> whenever the governing party changes its leader. One consideration may suppress such calls on this occasion \u2013 the poll ratings<\/a> of the traditional parties (especially the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats). Only Reform UK<\/a> would stand to benefit from a snap election. <\/p>\n \n It follows from all this that there are two main routes to becoming prime minister in the UK. The first is to be selected as the leader of the opposition and then win a majority of seats at a general election. The second route is to be selected as the new leader of an already incumbent governing party and become a \u201ctakeover\u201d prime minister<\/a> midway thought a parliament.<\/p>\n Among postwar prime ministers, nine initially took office through the first route \u2013 that is, by winning a general election and causing a change in the party of government. Labour\u2019s Harold Wilson achieved this feat twice, in 1964 (he lost to Edward Heath\u2019s Conservatives in 1970), and again in 1974. <\/p>\n Starmer was the most recent new prime minster to take office in this way, in 2024 when Labour overturned the Conservatives\u2019 majority and won 411<\/a> of the 650 available seats.<\/p>\n In contrast, ten people \u2013 soon to be 11 \u2013 took office midway through a parliament by being selected as the governing party\u2019s new leader. The most recent was Rishi Sunak, Starmer\u2019s immediate predecessor. Sunak was an unusual \u201cdouble\u201d takeover prime minister: he took office after the Conservatives ejected two prime ministers \u2013 Boris Johnson<\/a> and Liz Truss<\/a> \u2013 in quick succession.<\/p>\n Every takeover prime minster would like to win a general election of their own. It helps them to establish their authority and credibility, it lays to rest opposition jibes about their legitimacy, and it removes the political shackles of inherited manifesto pledges.<\/p>\n Of the ten postwar takeover prime ministers to date, only one \u2013 the Conservative Anthony Eden in 1955 \u2013 managed the trick of immediately calling and winning a general election<\/a>. Four others \u2013 fellow Conservatives Harold Macmillan, John Major and Boris Johnson \u2013 waited before facing voters but still won a majority of their own.<\/p>\n Theresa May\u2019s \u201cvictory\u201d (the Conservatives just fell short of a majority) in 2017<\/a> saw her returned at the head of a minority government. This effectively left her \u201ca dead woman walking\u201d<\/a>. The remaining five takeover prime ministers lost office when facing voters for the first time.<\/p>\n There won\u2019t be a general election now because Labour has another three years before it must face voters and, more importantly, it is way behind in the polls. It would be political madness for Starmer\u2019s successor to call an early vote. The more pressing question is whether there will even be an internal party leadership contest.<\/p>\n Some in the Labour party would prefer an uncontested coronation for Andy Burnham, the former mayor of Greater Manchester, whose resounding win<\/a> in the Makerfield byelection precipitated Starmer\u2019s resignation. Those backing this route argue that it would spare the party a divisive and distracting contest.<\/p>\n The counter-argument is that not having a contest risks saddling the party with an untested leader<\/a> who may lack the skills and vision needed to be prime minister. The absence of a contest also risks stifling debate and may cost the new leader the legitimacy and \u201cleadership capital\u201d<\/a> that comes from winning an internal leadership election.<\/p>\n What happens next will depend on the calculations of Labour MPs. Starmer\u2019s resignation speech set out a clear timetable for choosing a new leader. Nominations will open on July 9 and will close a week later. Those fancying their chances must be a Labour MP and will need to secure the backing of 81 colleagues plus other parts of the party, including constituency parties or affiliated trade unions. Burnham\u2019s nomination looks assured. So far, that is not the case for anyone else.<\/p>\n
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\n Read more:
\n Andy Burnham: what to expect from the UK\u2019s likely next prime minister<\/a>
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\nWanting a general election<\/h2>\n
Wanting a \u2018coronation\u2019<\/h2>\n
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