This may be the moment \u2013 \u201cthe final chance to change\u201d, as the victorious candidate put it \u2013 that transforms the performance and perception of Labour. But it also demonstrates how profoundly, and rapidly, politics in Britain is changing.<\/p>\n
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\n Governing parties don\u2019t win byelections, and certainly not on 23-point<\/a> swings. Burnham\u2019s 54.8% vote share<\/a>, more than 20 percentage points<\/a> more than that of Reform UK, was unexpectedly emphatic \u2013 a personal triumph.<\/p>\n The momentum behind Reform UK\u2019s leader, Nigel Farage, has if not stalled then noticeably decelerated. A second seat in the north-west that Reform ought to have won this year, it hasn\u2019t \u2013 and this time resoundingly.<\/p>\n Much was down to Labour\u2019s exceptional candidate \u2013 and Reform\u2019s exceptionally inappropriate one<\/a>. In the May local election, Reform was rampant, Labour won only 24%<\/a> of the vote in Makerfield, and Restore Britain didn\u2019t stand. Last night, Rupert Lowe\u2019s party finished third<\/a>.<\/p>\n Lowe has checked Farage<\/a> with politics of such unabashed illiberalism as to make Reform resemble the Liberal Democrats. It is too simplistic to assume that had Restore not stood, its voters would have turned to Reform (and in any case, Burnham would still have won conclusively). But rather than deal in switchers, Restore\u2019s menace is its appeal to non-voters.<\/p>\n This byelection was not merely a matter of getting someone into parliament to supplant a prime minister. It was intended, and needed to be, a statement.<\/p>\n More than any incumbent party in history, given the unique febrility of politics in 2026, Labour could not hope, much less expect, to win a byelection anywhere. Never competitive in rural constituencies, in cities Labour is prey to the Greens, in towns to Reform and Restore, and in Scotland and Wales to nationalists. (Labour did poorly<\/a> in the other byelections on the same day, both in Scotland.)<\/p>\n Ironically, given the central importance of \u201cplace\u201d in this byelection, Makerfield isn\u2019t one. A swathe of small towns and bits of larger ones, its identity is regional and emblematic, if not typical, of seats which used in lore to weigh rather than count votes for Labour. However, new parties now appeal in a political marketplace for the disaffected.<\/p>\n Andy Burnham contesting a seat in Greater Manchester was almost the only likely Labour victory. There were more propitious seats, such as Gorton and Denton in February, but a weak Starmer blocked Burnham\u2019s candidature<\/a>. Weakened further by the May elections, the prime minister was unable to do so a second time for Makerfield.<\/p>\n As it turned out, that initial rebuff has burnished Burnham\u2019s subsequent success. The greater marginality of Makerfield makes the statement much greater.<\/p>\n Reform\u2019s rise has been tempered by two otherwise unrelated phenomena. Just as Farage inspires, he also repels: his is a unique talent for encouraging tactical voting (the Conservative, Liberal Democrat and Green party combined vote share<\/a> of just 3.3% in Makerfield suggests as much).<\/p>\n Burnham\u2019s clearest and most long-term policy \u2013 electoral reform<\/a> \u2013 is intended to address the negativity surrounding politics today. The salience of proportional representation has never been greater than in Britain\u2019s new multi-party politics. With Burnham as prime minister, it is likely to be a Labour manifesto commitment for the first time.<\/p>\n But Burnham\u2019s undoubted personal popularity provides more questions than answers \u2013 not least, whether a politician who has been highly successfully regionally can translate that record to the national, and international, level.<\/p>\n There is also the question of whether the affability and relatability so integral to his appeal can withstand the vicissitudes of the highest office \u2013 as well as the scepticism, cynicism and increasing impatience of voters. Burnham will soon discover that the quickest way for a popular politician to become an unpopular politician is to become prime minister.<\/p>\n This is not Burnham\u2019s first attempt to lead Labour. To the political questions of the day in 2010 and 2015, he was not the answer. In the post-New Labour world, Burnham lost to a softer leftist in Ed Miliband. And in the electoral wild west begat by Miliband\u2019s party reforms, he lost to a harder leftist in Jeremy Corbyn<\/a>.<\/p>\n But third time around, Burnham might just be the answer. The fractured multi-party politics of 2026 may respond more favourably to Labour with a leader whom its members and voters actually want to vote for.<\/p>\n Getting Labour\u2019s vote out next time will be its highest priority. As almost never happens, the turnout in yesterday\u2019s byelection was higher than in the general election.<\/p>\n Burnham\u2019s re-election to parliament would always \u2013 to use the word of the age \u2013 change things. The measure would be the scale of his victory. For him to be a serious alternative leader, much less a saviour, the victory needed to be big. It was, and it was also personal.<\/p>\n
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\n Andy Burnham is back at Westminster: what this says about Britain\u2019s changing political system<\/a>
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\nReform and tactical voting<\/h2>\n
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