A Reuters review<\/a> in late September found that the president had named his predecessor almost 900 times in nine months \u2013 roughly three times a day \u2013 across nearly 200 events and interviews and 190 Truth Social posts. The economy came up more than any other subject.<\/p>\n But, if prices are too high it must be Biden that is to blame. Trump\u2019s strategy for claiming credit for positive achievements and blaming his predecessor for anything negative became evident early in the president\u2019s second term<\/a>. But 18 months on, Trump still insists that affordability concerns are either a \u201ccon job by the Democrats<\/a>\u201d or they were \u201ccaused by Sleepy Joe Biden and the Biden aministration<\/a>\u201d. <\/p>\n The question is whether anyone beyond the Republican base believes him.<\/p>\n It is easy to see why Trump reaches for this script. In 2024, voters consistently trusted him over Biden on the economy. An ABC News\/Ipsos poll<\/a> that May found 46% trusted Trump to handle the economy against 32% for Biden, and 44% to 30% on inflation. YouGov polling<\/a> from mid-2024 found that on 23 of 25 national problems tested, more people approved of Trump\u2019s record in office than of Biden\u2019s. Voters believed prices had risen on Biden\u2019s watch, and they blamed him.<\/p>\n But two years on the blame has transferred to the current occupant of the Oval Office. This is hardly surprising and something Trump and his advisers ought to have recognised from the 2022 midterms. Then Biden\u2019s approval on the economy had sunk to a dismal 28%. Similarly, a majority of Americans now blame Trump. <\/p>\n This matters. A Reuters\/Ipsos poll<\/a> at the end of August found that 47% of registered voters said the economy was the single most important factor in their midterm vote \u2013 and 71% of Americans disapproved of Trump\u2019s handling of it. By late September, Reuters\/Ipsos<\/a> put his approval on the issue at just 17%, with more Republicans disapproving than approving for the first time. <\/p>\n That poll was something of an outlier, but others<\/a> polls<\/a> consistently show Trump\u2019s approval on the economy in the low 30s.<\/p>\n The problem for the administration, and for Republican candidates whose fortunes are tied to it, is that much of the public does not think it needs a profound understanding of economics to trace inflation back to Trump\u2019s second-term policies. As we argue in our book, Trump v Biden<\/a>, in his second term, Trump\u2019s administration has doubled down on key themes from the first, notably restricting immigration and imposing tariffs.<\/p>\n According to Silver Bulletin<\/a>, Trump now has a net approval rating of -12 points on immigration, traditionally one of his stronger issues<\/a>. On trade, more directly tied to prices, his net approval rating<\/a> is -29 points.<\/p>\n Trump\u2019s first term imposed a range of new tariffs, particularly on China, many of which Biden retained. Trump 2.0 has set about a significant, if haphazard, expansion of this trade protectionism. In April 2025, an executive order<\/a> announced a new tariff regime on what Trump declared \u201cLiberation Day<\/a>\u201d. <\/p>\n It\u2019s hard to judge the exact impact of Trump\u2019s second-term tariff regime, as levels have fluctuated and some tariffs have been imposed, only to be lifted again. But Republican candidates have shied away from talking about tariffs<\/a> and polls throughout the year<\/a> have found most Americans believe they have hurt rather than helped the economy.<\/p>\n Still, on tariffs Trump was at least delivering on a campaign promise. More confounding to his supporters was the war with Iran after Trump promised not to. As he famously said on the campaign trail: \u201cThey said: \u2018He will start a war.\u2019 I\u2019m not going to start a war. I\u2019m going to stop wars<\/a>.\u201d <\/p>\n Seven months of conflict with Iran sit uneasily with that pledge. And, what is worse for Republicans, many voters have drawn a direct line from the conflict to rising gasoline and diesel prices at home. In early October, the Pew Research Center<\/a> found just 33% approved of Trump\u2019s handling of the conflict, while 77% expected it to last at least six more months. The chief objection was cost. 73% of Americans were extremely or very concerned about higher fuel prices.<\/p>\n The Trump era has broken many norms of politics, but political gravity still exists. Midterms are usually a verdict on the sitting president, and this one looks no different. Pew<\/a> puts Trump\u2019s approval at 30%, the lowest of his second term and eight points below Biden\u2019s 38%<\/a> at the same stage in 2022. <\/p>\nThe blame has changed hands<\/h2>\n
A referendum on Trump, not Biden<\/h2>\n
![\"The](\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/295359\/count.gif\")
<\/p>\n