The byelection was a major test of Burnham\u2019s popularity and his capacity to unite the British centre-left. Labour did remarkably well, with Camden Council leader Sagal Abdi-Wali losing just under four percentage points<\/a> from Keir Starmer\u2019s 2024 vote share. She easily beat the Green party candidate Zack Polanski.<\/p>\n \n Questions begged at the byelection included: can the \u201cking of the north\u201d<\/a> appeal to southern voters? Can the Greens win over progressive voters in cities across Britain? Will Conservative and Liberal Democrat supporters vote tactically to keep the Greens out? And has the Green Party of England and Wales been damaged by its conference decision to define Zionism as racism<\/a> and, effectively, support a policy that would lead to the end of the state of Israel?<\/p>\n Labour\u2019s win clearly showed that Burnham can appeal to London voters. While the city\u2019s media still fear that the prime minister may harbour anti-London sentiments, the Holborn and St Pancras result suggests voters in the capital are prepared to give him a chance.<\/p>\n Moreover, after the election became a struggle for the soul of the centre-left, it is possible that the government will now be wary of accidentally sending out anti-London messaging. Labour won 59 out of 75 seats<\/a> in the capital in 2024, the party\u2019s biggest such concentration in the country. These constituents need to be shown a little love.<\/p>\n The second question has been answered with a resounding \u201cno\u201d. Taking the Green vote in 2024 and adding votes cast for the independent candidate Andrew Feinstein<\/a> in the same election (a better starting point than just the Green vote), there was a swing of just under 4% from Labour to the Greens.<\/p>\n The Greens can certainly win a proportion of the progressive left vote, but this will not be enough to win many urban seats, even in London. On Thursday\u2019s showing, the party would probably win no seats at all in the city \u2013 and few, if any, in similar cities like Leeds, Manchester and Birmingham.<\/p>\n The fall in the Liberal Democrat vote<\/a> may suggest a modest amount of tactical voting to stop the Greens. In some London borough elections in May this year it looked as if Labour voters switched to the Conservatives<\/a> to keep Reform UK out. The way Lib Dem, Conservative and Labour supporters use their votes tactically for each other to block the Greens and Reform will be a key feature determining the outcomes of the next general election. <\/p>\n The extent to which the Greens were harmed by their \u201cZionism is racism\u201d and \u201cone state\u201d policies is impossible to measure. Polling will doubtless help political experts find out more. But the divisions at the top of the party remain, with key figures including its first-ever MP, Caroline Lucas<\/a>, openly critical of Polanski\u2019s failure to state his position on the issue or to vote at the conference. This does not bode well for the Greens\u2019 capacity to fight the tough and experienced people who run the Labour machine.<\/p>\n
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\n Zack Polanski loses his byelection bid \u2013 and the Green party\u2019s Zionism motion has outraged its closest allies in Europe<\/a>
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\nBattle for Britain\u2019s centre-left<\/h2>\n
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