Scotland<\/h2>\n
My research<\/a> has found that most Scottish voters have voted along unionist or nationalist lines since 2011. Before then, it was not unusual to see some strategic voting between Labour and the Scottish National Party (SNP), but now voters primarily make their choice within their own unionist or nationalist camp. <\/p>\n There aren\u2019t core ethnic, religious or language issues that drive support for Scottish independence. Support is higher in urban, younger, more educated areas and among those who identify as \u201cScottish-only\u201d, but these aren\u2019t historic divisions. I\u2019ve put lots of demographic and polling data into a calculator<\/a> to visualise this.<\/p>\n In 2014, unionism won the Scottish Independence referendum<\/a> by 55% to 45%. Now polling shows<\/a> that a vote would be close. But if Wales left the UK or Reform won the next general election on a platform of policies that are seen as English-focused, support for secession in Scotland would almost certainly rise.<\/p>\n As far back as 1912, a temporary northern state was discussed with various boundaries proposed before Northern Ireland was established in 1921. Unlike Scotland and Wales, whose boundaries are ancient, Northern Ireland\u2019s borders were deliberately drawn to ensure a comfortable unionist majority. <\/p>\n A person\u2019s position on reunification is closely tied to their Irish or British ethnicity, which largely maps with being Catholic or Protestant, although religious participation is low and declining. <\/p>\n It remains a deeply contentious debate with active paramilitary groups for<\/a> and against reunification<\/a>.<\/p>\n Some people have ceased to identify with this binary choice, especially since Brexit<\/a>. They are represented by two liberal-to-centre-left parties that have no position on reunification: Alliance and the Greens. These parties haven\u2019t hurt nationalism, but have made a dent in unionism\u2019s three conservative parties. In fact, Sinn F\u00e9in became the largest party in the Northern Ireland Assembly in 2022 despite not gaining a single seat because the DUP lost three. <\/p>\n This emerging group has the casting vote and evidence suggests<\/a> that over half would vote for reunification, but on today\u2019s numbers nationalism needs about 80% of them to win. Overall, a result of about 55-45% for the union would be expected. Scotland leaving or Reform winning could increase support for reunification, while Donald Trump\u2019s musings<\/a> probably make no difference.<\/p>\n For unification to happen, the Republic of Ireland also needs to say Yes in a concurrent referendum which should pass, but this isn\u2019t by any means certain.<\/p>\n Plaid Cymru\u2019s historic breakthrough this year under leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has made it the largest party in Wales<\/a>. Labour had won everything aside from two European elections in the previous 100 years, but struggled to justify itself after governing Wales for two decades. It was also hamstrung by Keir Starmer\u2019s deeply unpopular Labour government in Westminster.<\/p>\n The nationalist party won 35% of the vote for the Senedd (Welsh parliament). Adding in the Greens and minor pro-independence parties puts Welsh secessionism on 43%. That\u2019s remarkable, but a lot of that Plaid Cymru support is soft<\/a> and could swing straight back to Labour. It\u2019s pretty common for Welsh Labour to do about 10% better at Westminster than at the devolved level. <\/p>\n In Wales, constitutional positions are heavily affected by language politics. Welsh speakers in the west<\/a> are quite likely to endorse independence, while the more English-speaking east is less convinced. Support is particularly low among the 20%<\/a> of the Welsh population who were born in England and mainly live in eastern and southern areas. <\/p>\n Independence struggles to break the 30% mark in polls, but a hefty dose of \u201cundecideds\u201d means unionism has been under 55% for two years. Constitutional questions don\u2019t dominate the conversation in Wales, so there are more people open to changing their minds than in Scotland or Northern Ireland, but this part of the union is probably safe. <\/p>\n If a vote were held now, I\u2019d expect over 60% to back the Union. <\/p>\nNorthern Ireland<\/h2>\n
Wales<\/h2>\n
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