{"id":1652,"date":"2026-09-10T11:51:13","date_gmt":"2026-09-10T11:51:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/2026\/09\/10\/swedens-prison-population-has-doubled-in-a-decade-and-is-set-to-spike-even-further-heres-why\/"},"modified":"2026-09-10T11:51:13","modified_gmt":"2026-09-10T11:51:13","slug":"swedens-prison-population-has-doubled-in-a-decade-and-is-set-to-spike-even-further-heres-why","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/2026\/09\/10\/swedens-prison-population-has-doubled-in-a-decade-and-is-set-to-spike-even-further-heres-why\/","title":{"rendered":"Sweden\u2019s prison population has doubled in a decade, and is set to spike even further \u2013 here\u2019s why"},"content":{"rendered":"
<\/span> Savvapanf Photo\/Shutterstock<\/a><\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Sweden\u2019s criminal justice system was once held up as an example of moderation \u2013 focusing on rehabilitation and minimising the use of imprisonment. But the Scandinavian nation could soon join countries such as Russia, Belarus and Nicaragua as a world leader in punitiveness<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Throughout 1990s and up to the mid-2010s, Sweden<\/a> had a total prison population of 4,000-6,000 people<\/a>. But over the last decade, the prison population has increased to over 9,000 people in 2025.<\/p>\n

This figure clearly sets Sweden apart from its Nordic neighbours<\/a>. It has reached an imprisonment rate of over 100 prisoners per 100,000 inhabitants. Denmark, Finland and Norway have all remained around 50-75. <\/p>\n

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We think we know Sweden \u2013 a peaceful nation grounded in social democracy, natural beauty, IKEA and Abba. But in 2026, is this still the real Sweden? Ahead of the country\u2019s general election on September 13, The Conversation UK has teamed up with its Swedish partner universities for a series of articles<\/a> examining why this small nation remains so fascinating.<\/em><\/p>\n

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But recent estimates indicate that the most radical increase is yet to come. According to the Swedish Prison and Probation Service, the prison population could increase to more than 30,000 in the coming decades, equivalent to just under 300 prisoners per 100,000 inhabitants.<\/p>\n

That would make Sweden\u2019s prison population per capita among the highest in the world, outnumbering that of any other EU member<\/a> state by a considerable margin.<\/p>\n

Prisoners per 100,000 people, western Europe (2000-25) and Sweden (2000-34)<\/strong><\/p>\n

One might be tempted to think this increase in imprisonment is the direct consequence of a severe increase in Sweden\u2019s crime rates. However, overall crime rates<\/a>, including violent crimes in general, have not increased<\/a> in recent decades.<\/p>\n

Certain crimes, such as incidents of deadly violence involving firearms, have generally increased<\/a> over the last 20 years, peaking in 2022. Despite this trend, the number of annual deaths per capita caused by violent crimes remains about the same<\/a> as it was during the late 1980s and early 1990s.<\/p>\n

Sweden\u2019s prison expansion is instead the result of a large number of legislative reforms, which have increased the scope of criminalisation and the severity of punishments for a wide range of crimes<\/a>. This has resulted in a doubling<\/a> of the number of prison years sentenced annually, from about 8,000 years in the mid-2010s to nearly 19,000<\/a> in 2024.<\/p>\n

A recently enacted<\/a> overhaul of the penal system is estimated to further increase this number by an additional 16,000 prison years annually. <\/p>\n

This overhaul should be viewed in the light of other reforms that will also impact the prison population going forward. Sweden recently reintroduced indefinite preventive detention<\/a> for dangerous offenders, and restricted conditional release<\/a>. The possibility to account for the age of young offenders has been reduced, and the age of criminal responsibility has been temporarily lowered<\/a> from 15 to 14 for serious crimes.<\/p>\n

Combined, these reforms mean that more people will be imprisoned for longer periods of time.<\/p>\n

Justifying more prisoners<\/h2>\n

Present and past governments have argued these reforms are needed to ensure that the punishment fits the crime<\/a>, regardless of any measurable preventative outcomes. The current minister of justice, Gunnar Str\u00f6mmer, has said that more people being imprisoned for longer is \u201cimportant, desirable and necessary\u201d<\/a>.<\/p>\n

At the same time, Sweden\u2019s prison and probation service is struggling to adjust to the rapid increase of inmates. It has already enacted a new policy of double occupancy, whereby cells that previously held one person now regularly hold two. The parliamentary ombudsmen has concluded that the current prison conditions put inmates at risk<\/a> of being subjected to inhumane or degrading treatment. <\/p>\n

The government still intends to enforce legislation to further increase the prison population, while sending a limited number of prisoners to serve their sentences in Estonian prisons<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The intended and expected effects of this major push for imprisonment, besides the increase in prison population, remain unclear. The reports that precede these proposals rarely contain any credible bases<\/a> for how the increased use of imprisonment could constitute a serious solution to the problems they are claimed to target, such as the increasing rate and severity of certain types of violent and organised crime. <\/p>\n

Criminal law researchers and other experts have repeatedly cautioned against penal expansion, noting that the reforms lack engagement with fundamental principles of criminal law<\/a> and human rights concerns<\/a>.<\/p>\n

These issues are exacerbated by the speed and multitude of reforms. The government\u2019s own investigators<\/a> have noted that they could not confidently assess the consequences of their proposals, in the light of the aggregated effects of other reforms. <\/p>\n

We believe that incarceration is one of the state\u2019s most harmful tools. Criminal law reform must therefore be made conscientiously. <\/p>\n

We have seen<\/a> that the latest developments in Sweden are, troublingly, matched with an indifference from policymakers towards what these reforms are meant to achieve, what social and individual harms they are likely to produce, and how to measure whether they succeed or fail.<\/p>\n

\"The<\/p>\n

The authors do not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and have disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Savvapanf Photo\/Shutterstock Sweden\u2019s criminal justice system was once held up as an example of moderation \u2013 focusing on rehabilitation and minimising the use of imprisonment. But the Scandinavian nation could soon join countries such as Russia, Belarus and Nicaragua as a world leader in punitiveness. Throughout 1990s and up to the mid-2010s, Sweden had a […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1652","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1652","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1652"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1652\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1652"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1652"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1652"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}