But these are the first national elections in Russia since its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This means that a smooth campaign and a comfortable win for United Russia can be presented as an endorsement of the war and the way that Putin has handled it. Such an endorsement is especially important because the war has not been going well for Russia lately. <\/p>\n
Russia\u2019s progress on the battlefield in eastern Ukraine has slowed to a crawl, with Ukraine taking back more than 700sq kms<\/a> of occupied territory in July. And Moscow is paying a high price for the small territorial gains that it is making. Russian forces are estimated to have suffered 1.4 million casualties<\/a>. Soldiers are dying and being injured at a higher rate<\/a> than they can be replaced with recruits. <\/p>\n The Russian military has sought to fill the gaps in its ranks by recruiting prisoners<\/a> and foreign fighters<\/a> \u2013 among them reportedly<\/a> another 50,000 troops from North Korea. <\/p>\n \n There are widespread rumours<\/a> that Putin will be forced to launch another round of compulsory mobilisation \u2013 perhaps calling up as many as half a million citizens \u2013 in order to replenish the armed forces and continue the war. In response to the last mass mobilisation in September 2022, an estimated 700,000 Russians<\/a>, mostly young men of military age, left the country to avoid fighting in the war. <\/p>\n Mobilisation has been deeply unpopular with the soldiers and their families. Mobilised soldiers do not serve for a specified term but instead have an open-ended obligation. Families of the mobilised have been willing to complain about the conditions of their service, including a lack of adequate training and equipment, and the infrequency of leave periods to return home. <\/p>\n Some of the wives of these soldiers have even openly campaigned for an end to mobilisation<\/a> and the return of their husbands.<\/p>\n Meanwhile, Ukraine\u2019s strategy of drone attacks deep inside Russia mean that the war is making everyday life more difficult for millions of Russians who might otherwise not have been significantly affected by it. Ukrainian strikes on oil refineries have created severe fuel shortages<\/a> throughout the country. Most of Russia\u2019s regions have experienced some form of fuel rationing, with long queues reported at filling stations. <\/p>\n Extraordinarily high rates of cash withdrawals<\/a> from Russian banks demonstrate the economic insecurity experienced by ordinary citizens, who fear the government could seize private savings to help fund the war in Ukraine<\/p>\n Recent public opinion polls in Russia<\/a> provide evidence that society\u2019s views are shifting. Support for the war in Ukraine has dropped over the past year from 78% in July 2025 to 66% in July 2026. Over the same period, the percentage of Russians who believed their country was moving in the right direction dropped from 69% to 54%. In a country where the state exercises tight political control and expressing opposition to the war can lead to arrest, fines or even imprisonment, these are remarkably bad results.<\/p>\n In the run up to September\u2019s elections, only one political party in Russia has expressed outright opposition to the war. Yabloko, a small, pro-democracy party, adopted the campaign slogan: \u201cFor peace and freedom, for a life without fear.\u201d But Russia\u2019s supreme court has now banned the party<\/a> from participating in the elections, while another court has sentenced its deputy leader to 11 years in prison. <\/p>\n The banning of Yabloko is a measure of the Kremlin\u2019s concern that the elections could provide an outlet, no matter how small, for a public expression of anger. In the previous elections in 2021, Yabloko only received 1.34% of the vote<\/a> and failed to win a single seat in the State Duma. <\/p>\n Even if it had been allowed to participate in September\u2019s elections, Yabloko would have had no realistic chance of making a dent in United Russia\u2019s dominant position. No political actor, no matter how insignificant, can be permitted to threaten the state\u2019s narrative that the war is under control and society is united behind Putin. <\/p>\n In an attempt to reassure the public that all is well, Putin himself has been visiting cities across the country this summer in a pre-election tour<\/a> of Russia. This is an unusual step for a leader who is notoriously fearful of assassination and reluctant to leave<\/a> the security of Moscow. <\/p>\n
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\nHardship on the home front<\/h2>\n
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