Zelensky inherited a frozen conflict that escalated into full-scale invasion<\/a>. Khamenei inherited both a war and Iran\u2019s highest office at once, becoming supreme leader in March 2026 after his father was killed<\/a> in the US-Israeli strikes that opened the conflict on February 28.<\/p>\n Trump can order devastating strikes but not answer how Iran fits into a future regional security order. Netanyahu can destroy infrastructure across Gaza, Lebanon and Iran but not guarantee security for Israel. Putin can sustain an invasion for years, yet still can\u2019t force Ukraine into territorial compromise. Zelensky can deny Russia victory but his forces struggle to recover occupied territory. And Khamenei can make defeating Iran costly but he can\u2019t stop the US or Israel from trying.<\/p>\n Such stalemates are not new. That they have become seemingly unbreakable, however, is. The old logic of asymmetric warfare<\/a> was relatively simple: the weak can prevent the strong from winning by using unconventional tactics and weapons to offset superior firepower. Russia discovered this in Afghanistan<\/a>, the US rediscovered it there almost half a century after Vietnam. Neither was defeated in battle, yet both withdrew once superior firepower failed to produce a sustainable outcome.<\/p>\n To some extent, this logic still plays out in Ukraine and Iran. Ukraine doesn\u2019t need to invade Russia to frustrate Putin \u2013 it needs to remain sovereign and prevent Moscow from dictating its future. Iran doesn\u2019t need to defeat the US military or destroy Israel \u2013 it needs to preserve the regime and persuade adversaries that further escalation carries unacceptable costs. <\/p>\n A weaker country\u2019s victory doesn\u2019t require conquering territory or destroying an enemy\u2019s forces \u2013 it may simply mean survival. This creates an imbalance: an aggressor must achieve something, a defender only has to prevent it. Putin loses if he cannot impose a settlement on his terms and Zelensky succeeds by denying it to him. Trump and Netanyahu may degrade Iranian capabilities, but if the regime survives, Khamenei can claim he has not been defeated. <\/p>\n The stronger side loses by not winning. The weaker side wins by not losing.<\/p>\n In this logic of asymmetry, time has always been a weapon of its own. Powerful states want speed \u2013 shock, collapse, a quick exit that doesn\u2019t look like a forever war. Weaker actors play for time. <\/p>\n Ukraine\u2019s survival in the first weeks of the full-scale invasion transformed the war<\/a>, giving Kyiv time to mobilise society and secure western support, before then exploiting its ability to innovate, which has gone some way towards levelling the battlefield<\/a>. <\/p>\n Iran\u2019s cheap drones, missile attacks, sea mines and threats to energy infrastructure don\u2019t need to defeat a superior coalition outright \u2013 only to prolong uncertainty and erode its adversaries\u2019 will to continue.<\/p>\n In both wars, the battlefield has become wider than the front line \u2013 to such an extent that the two wars are increasingly connected<\/a>. Ukraine\u2019s air campaign is degrading the oil pipelines and refineries<\/a> funding the Kremlin\u2019s war effort and its drone strikes in the Caspian Sea disrupt Russian drone supplies to Iran. <\/p>\n Iran and its proxies have turned military confrontation into a broader economic and political crisis \u2013 a \u201cforever war\u201d<\/a>\u2013 well beyond the Middle East by threatening infrastructure and shipping routes of its neighbours in the Gulf and the Red Sea.<\/p>\n The military forces that the weak and strong alike are able to muster can destroy infrastructure and kill commanders. But without an overarching strategy this remains just destruction. <\/p>\n This does not mean military superiority has ceased to matter. Stronger powers still have an enormous capacity to destroy infrastructure, degrade military capabilities, seize territory and improve their bargaining position. <\/p>\nTime the great leveller<\/h2>\n
No strategic vision<\/h2>\n
![\"The](\"https:\/\/counter.theconversation.com\/content\/289242\/count.gif\")
<\/p>\n