{"id":111,"date":"2026-04-14T12:24:39","date_gmt":"2026-04-14T12:24:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/2026\/04\/14\/will-voters-turn-against-donald-trump-in-the-us-midterms-what-we-know-so-far\/"},"modified":"2026-04-14T12:24:39","modified_gmt":"2026-04-14T12:24:39","slug":"will-voters-turn-against-donald-trump-in-the-us-midterms-what-we-know-so-far","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/2026\/04\/14\/will-voters-turn-against-donald-trump-in-the-us-midterms-what-we-know-so-far\/","title":{"rendered":"Will voters turn against Donald Trump in the US midterms? What we know so far"},"content":{"rendered":"

The US is bracing for another cycle of elections, with November\u2019s midterms<\/a> determining the scope of Donald Trump\u2019s power in the final two years of his presidency. All seats in the House of Representatives will be contested, as will one-third of the Senate. <\/p>\n

Trump\u2019s Republican party currently controls both branches of Congress. However, polls are indicating a swing to the Democrats that would see them retake the House. A current RealClear generic congressional vote poll<\/a>, in which people are asked whether they will vote for Democrats or Republicans for Congress, gives the Democrats a five percentage point lead over the Republicans at 47.4% to 42%. <\/p>\n

One major variable that is likely to affect the outcome of November\u2019s elections is the war in Iran. Some Republican political operatives believe the conflict and its repercussions, namely the increased cost of living<\/a>, could prove fatal<\/a> to their party\u2019s hopes of securing a slim retention of the House. <\/p>\n

A March poll<\/a> by the Pew Research Center revealed 61% of Americans disapproved of Trump\u2019s handling of the conflict. One voting demographic of particular concern for Republicans is people aged 18 to 29. An Economist\/YouGov poll<\/a> also from March showed that 63% of these people opposed the war. <\/p>\n

Men within this age bracket were an important factor in Trump\u2019s 2024 election victory. Philip Wang, political reporter for Time magazine, argued<\/a> in an article on April 8 that this \u201csame voting bloc \u2026 is showing far less interest in voting in the midterms\u201d. <\/p>\n

William A. Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, has asserted that the affordability issue is affecting Trump\u2019s standing. He has also stated that<\/a>, for a majority of Americans, the president\u2019s \u201cpriorities do not align with theirs\u201d. A recent survey<\/a> conducted by American non-profit Consumer Action for a Strong Economy revealed that voters\u2019 most pressing concern was the price of groceries, with the cost of healthcare coming second. <\/p>\n

\n \"A
\n Three weeks into the Iran war, petrol prices had surged to an average of US$4 a gallon.<\/span>
\n Carmen K. Sisson \/ Shutterstock<\/a><\/span>
\n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Over the past year, both parties have also engaged in redistricting efforts<\/a> designed to increase their respective chances of controlling the House. In a number of mainly \u2013 though not exclusively \u2013 Republican controlled states, legislators have redrawn congressional maps<\/a> in an attempt to secure more seats. <\/p>\n

The redistricting war has come down to two final states: Democratic-led Virginia and Republican-dominated Florida. On April 21, voters in Virginia will decide the fate of proposed new congressional boundaries heavily favouring Democrats. Florida\u2019s legislature will vote days later on a revised Republican-leaning electoral map. <\/p>\n

However, there are growing concerns<\/a> in both political camps about these votes and their impact on the result of the midterms. Florida Republicans fear Trump\u2019s low approval ratings could cost them<\/a> redrawn districts, while Democrats are encountering tepid backing<\/a> from their supporters for their aggressive redistricting in Virginia. <\/p>\n

Growing Democrat momentum<\/h2>\n

There have already been significant election results in recent weeks that have shed light on the trajectory of the upcoming midterms. In Republican-led Texas, a fascinating race is shaping up between both parties for a Senate seat. The last time a Democrat won here was in 1988. <\/p>\n

In primary elections in March, Democratic voters chose state representative James Talarico as their candidate for November\u2019s election. Republicans are yet to confirm theirs, with incumbent Senator John Cornyn facing Texas attorney-general Ken Paxton in a run-off election in May. <\/p>\n

Primary voting numbers in Texas are encouraging for Democrats<\/a>. For the first time in six years, more of its supporters cast early vote ballots in a March primary than Republicans. Democrats also saw a major shift in Latino voters to their side, a voting bloc that had swung to Trump in record numbers in 2024. <\/p>\n

According to analysis<\/a> by American broadcaster NPR: \u201cIn the ten most populous counties in Texas that are also at least 50% Latino, votes in the Democratic primary increased by an average of 128%.\u201d The same analysis concluded that, in those same counties, the Republican primary saw an average drop in votes of 4.8%.<\/p>\n

Then, in early April, liberal judge Chris Taylor won a seat on the state of Wisconsin\u2019s supreme court. She secured 60.1%<\/a> of the vote to her conservative opponent\u2019s 39.8%. Taylor\u2019s statewide vote is an impressive 21 percentage points<\/a> higher than Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris\u2019s vote share was in the state in 2024. <\/p>\n

Also in early April, an election took place in Georgia to fill the congressional seat vacated by former Trump ally Marjorie Taylor Greene<\/a>. Greene, who has publicly broken with Trump over his handling of the Epstein files, won in 2024 by almost 29 percentage points<\/a>. Her replacement, Clay Fuller, held the seat for the Republican party by a much narrower margin of just 12 percentage points<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The forecasts for November\u2019s midterm elections are moving in the Democrats direction, especially for taking control of the House. But there is some reason for hope among Republicans. <\/p>\n

Figures from CBS News and CNN\/SSRS<\/a> show that at the same point in 2006 and 2018 \u2013 also midterm election years where a Republican president was in office \u2013 Democrats were ahead on party favourability by 18 points and 12 points respectively. At this stage in 2026, the data reveals Republicans are actually sitting with a five-point favourability lead. <\/p>\n

Seven months out from November\u2019s midterms, Democrats have momentum on their side as well as a Republican president whose poll ratings are plummeting<\/a>. The most likely outcome is that the Democrats will emerge with control of at least one branch of Congress.<\/p>\n

\"The<\/p>\n

Richard Hargy does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The US is bracing for another cycle of elections, with November\u2019s midterms determining the scope of Donald Trump\u2019s power in the final two years of his presidency. All seats in the House of Representatives will be contested, as will one-third of the Senate. Trump\u2019s Republican party currently controls both branches of Congress. However, polls are […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-111","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=111"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/111\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=111"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=111"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/redzine.co.uk\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=111"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}